US Non-Farm Payrolls And Auto Forex Trading
Posted in Auto Forex Trading on October 21st, 2010 by adminMany who are concerned with auto forex trading that don’t understand the significance of the US Non-Farm Payroll report to the global financial markets . I’m often asked, " why each month does the number of US jobs make the market jump up and down so much after it is released ?" To provide an answer to the question we must realize at what the US jobs number actually represents. Then we will have our insights as to why it makes the markets move like nothing else .
Each month, on the first Friday, the US Non-Farm payroll report is released . It is released by the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics or (BLS) and what it quantitatively measures , is the number of brand new jobs, excluding farming, created in the prior month by the US economy . It is of such importance because it reflects the overall health of the US economy and thus the global economy . After all , in the world, the US economy happens to be the largest and within the US the main component happens to be consumer spending; to the tune of no less than 70% ! This means, in auto forex trading, since the interest rates in a country is the main factor that affects the currency’s strength or weakness, you need to take a look at what actually drives those rates ; or the US Federal Reserve policy on interest rates. Probably the most important data for the Fed to use is this job report in order to set their short term interest rates and because of this, this report can and usually does , cause significant volatility across the markets .
Wondering why the Federal Reserves decision on short term interest rates are related to the jobs report ? A wonderful question! If the jobs report is on the strong side usually it means that people have employment and the utilization of resources is high . This in turn means that companies are hiring workers and these workers are going out and spending money too on clothing, eating out, and more and the economy is driven by these things ; they help to heat or grow the economy. When the economy is heating up more money is in circulation and it is important for the Federal Reserve to keep inflation in check . They cool the economy and keep inflation in check by raising the short term rates, or they heat up the economy by lowering the short term rates to help raise inflation . So it’s easy to see, so the job number is a huge factor , driving all of this beneath the surface .
When you’re getting ready for your auto forex trading day or the next week , take a look at the fundamental information on the events calendar that will be released in the next day or week . If you are still in the month’s first week then on the Friday of that first week you’ll have the Non-Farm Payroll report coming out because that is when it always comes out . If after the release of this report you want to take advantage of the market’s volatility , just remember the following formula : If the number of jobs are stronger than anticipated, it usually means the economy is stronger which means higher short term interest rates that lead to currency strength . Conversely , if you find the jobs report is weaker than it was expected to be then this usually means lower short term interest rates that lead to currency weakness . It’s not always so black and white , but knowledge of these general parameters will give you a leg up on your fellow trading competitors .
